Is Putin in trouble?

[morty]

Have I got the right guy as the leader of this Wagner militia ?

Was a hot dog seller .... thug ... has done 9 years in prison for something.

[Diasi]

I must admit that when I hear the names of some of the Russian generals I switch off after the third or fourth syllable and so I don't know which side is which, however I don't think Mr Putin is quite as unpopular as all that, and you can expect Wagner group to be closed down.

Yes, I need Putin to stay as President as I probably wouldn't be able to pronounce the name of his replacement.

[JBR]

It seems they have called off their invasion of Moscow now. All very odd. Can't help Putin's Reputation in Russia though.

At least they have distracted Putin from some of his hopes and exploits in Ukraine!

[Ashy]

Another coup fails.

Apparently the insurgents have withdrawn and will be incorporated into the Russian Army, whilst their leader will be exiled.

Hopefully much the same will happen in Sudan.

[klondike]

Have I got the right guy as the leader of this Wagner militia ?

Was a hot dog seller .... thug ... has done 9 years in prison for something.

I'm pretty sure that's the guy.

[Ashy]

A new conspiracy theory has come to light now, that Mr Putin arranged this fake coup with the Wagner PMC to disguise troop movements to the north of Kiev.

[klondike]

Plus Putin gave Belarus tactical nukes recently. Are all the Wagner troops in Belarus now?

I've not read the conspiracy theory which doubtless has loads of detail but it did seem an obvious possibility. Depends really on how strong Putin's grasp on power actually is. Would he be prepared to take the loss of face. Plus he did do a runner.

I see there is a story on this in Breitbart now but more of an opinion piece by some ex-General than a detailed study.

The chairman of the Commons Defence Committee commitee has said there may be regime change in Russia. Given politicians track record on reality I think we might be able to discount that opinion though.

I guess as with all things time will tell.

[Ashy]

Wagner force is in eastern Ukraine and Belarus as I understand it.

[klondike]

Just read another suggestion. Maybe Putin bought him off by offering him Belarus. There are endless ideas out there.

[Scrumpy]

Strange things going on..  I don't think Putin is in  danger of being replaced anytime soon.. 
The illness, that is killing him, Nah!.. don't believe it..
The man knows what he is doing.. If anyone wanted him dead.. it could happen.. They might end up dead themselves but it could still happen.. Anyone can be disposed of.. at a price..
  He is a very powerful man.. Who hates the West..
The Ukraine.. !!!  not to sure about the Ukraine..

Just my thoughts.. I don't know much about it .. I don't think anyone really knows ALL..

[JBR]

Plus Putin gave Belarus tactical nukes recently. 

Yes, I've been thinking about this.
Why give tactical nukes to Belarus?
Simply because if and when they fire them at the Ukraine (from Belarus) and response using tactical nukes, possibly supplied by the West, will hit and damage Belarus.

In other words, Putin is using his 'allies' in Belarus to do his dirty work in the safe knowledge that any responses in kind will not land on his own soil.

So who are the fools here?
Why, Belarus of course.
I can only assume that Putin has given them (his allies) no choice in the matter.

One response would be for NATO to station tactical nukes in Ukraine for exactly the same reasons.
So we end up with a limited nuclear war between Ukraine and Belarus, whilst Putin sits and watches in safety.

Personally, I think a better solution (though too late now) would be to accept Ukraine into NATO before the Russian invasion, just as Finland and others are now considering.

[klondike]

I don't think there is such a thing as a limited nuclear war. One nuke incoming and you need to launch all of yours while you still can. Whether that applies to tactical nukes in Ukraine or Belarus I don't know but the stakes are so high only a complete loon would take the chance.

On the bright side nobody will need to worry about inflation, global warming, mass immigration or anything else much at all really. Nukes are fully inclusive and won't discriminate.

[Ashy]

8,000 PMC Wagner soldiers are making camp in Belarus allegedly.

[klondike]

Equipment? Experience? I guess it means that Ukraine will need to hold back some from the war in the east to counter the threat.

[JBR]

Equipment? Experience? I guess it means that Ukraine will need to hold back some from the war in the east to counter the threat.

Yes.  No doubt Putin's long term plan.  Open up a second front to split Ukraine's forces.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are determined fighters and are driven to defend their country, as long as the West continues to supply them with arms and equipment.

On the other side, the Russians and their Wagner friends are perhaps not as driven.  I have read many reports of Russian soldiers running away, handing themselves into the Ukrainians, and even injuring themselves to avoid fighting.
At the same time, it has been suggested that Putin is steadily losing public support within his own country.

Although there will now be two fronts, the actual numbers of Ukrainians to Russians will probably remain the same.