Feasibility of Net Zero planning (using ChatGPT for stats)

[klondike]

I asked ChatGPT about energy used by petrol and diesel cars and domestic gas boilers all of which will need to come from the grid. I then asked what adding that capacity to the grid would cost. I don't think HMG ever thought of doing this or doing the sums at all.

The answers are no real surprise as it's surely obvious to anybody thinking about it that the only real zero about net zero is the chance of it happening. These numbers take no account of the population growth between now and 2050 when we will supposedly have a carbon free grid either. At least ChatGPT puts some numbers on it. More than the government have I fear.

ChatGPT is a bit verbose so I've copied the conclusion lines here and left all the working out stuff on the bottom where it can simply be ignored. Assuming you ever bothered to look at this thread in the first place.

How much energy is used annually by petrol and diesel cars in the UK?

Total Energy Consumption:
Adding both figures gives a total of approximately 318 TWh annually for petrol and diesel cars combined.
This is a rough estimate and could vary depending on the actual vehicle mix, fuel efficiencies, and total mileage.

How much energy is used annually by household gas boilers in the UK?

Conclusion:
UK household gas boilers consume approximately 270–300 TWh annually, making them one of the largest energy consumers in the residential sector. This figure underscores the significant energy demand from heating systems compared to vehicles.

What is the current total energy supplied by the UK national grid?

ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Searched 5 sites
The UK's National Grid currently supplies approximately 31 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity to meet a demand of around 33 GW. This energy is sourced from a mix of fossil fuels (48.2%), renewables (22.2%), and other sources such as nuclear (23.6%). Additional capacity is provided via interconnectors with neighboring countries

Annual energy supplied through the grid amounts to over 250 terawatt-hours (TWh), aligning with long-term demand trends and reflecting efforts to integrate more renewable energy sources.

So my sums now.
Current grid 250TWh
The 318TWh for cars could be delivered by ~ 100TWh with electric cars as they are around 3 times more energy efficient.
The 300TWh gas boilers would  supposedly be delivered by 100TWh needed by heat pumps
Total extra is 200TWh or an extra 0.8 times current
So the current 33GW (including the interconnects) would require an additional 26GW of capacity or 59GW

So, and this is when the real fairy tale starts I fear as those costs look woefully low to me and include nothing or at least insufficient that I can see for energy storage when the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine.

What would upgrading the national grid to 59GW cost?

Estimated Total Cost
For a 59 GW capacity:

• Generation: ~£80–100 billion, depending on the mix of nuclear and renewables.
• Grid upgrades: ~£40–45 billion.
• Balancing and additional technologies: ~£15–20 billion.

Total: Approximately £135–165 billion.


So a couple of follow up questions that show that just the nuclear portion alone comes close to that...

What is the UK grid nuclear capacity?
As of 2024, the UK's operational nuclear capacity is approximately 6.5 gigawatts (GW). However, most of this capacity is expected to be decommissioned within the next decade. The government aims to significantly expand nuclear power, targeting 24 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050 to meet around 25% of the nation's electricity needs. This will require investments in both large-scale projects like Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C, as well as small modular reactors (SMRs


What would 24GW of nuclear capacity cost to add to the UK power grid

Adding 24 GW of nuclear capacity to the UK power grid is a significant undertaking and comes with high costs. Estimates for nuclear power plant construction and associated infrastructure vary depending on factors such as reactor type, project scale, and financing models. Based on current trends and projects:

• Cost per GW:
  
  
  
  • Large nuclear projects like Hinkley Point C have costs estimated at approximately £5 billion to £6 billion per GW
    GOV.UK
    Imperial College London
    .
  • Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which are newer and less proven at scale, are projected to cost between £2 billion and £3 billion per GW but could reduce in cost as deployment scales up
    World Nuclear News
    Imperial College London
    .
• Total cost for 24 GW:
  
  
  
  • Assuming a mix of large-scale reactors and SMRs, the cost for 24 GW could range from £100 billion to £140 billion. This range accounts for current uncertainties in SMR deployment and potential cost overruns typical of large nuclear projects
    World Nuclear News
    Imperial College London
    .
• Cost drivers:
  
  
  
  • Regulatory and safety requirements: Strict regulations in the nuclear industry significantly increase costs.
  • Financing models: Public-private partnerships or government-backed models, like the Regulated Asset Base (RAB), can influence overall costs and consumer energy bills.
  • Inflation and supply chain: Escalating costs for materials and skilled labor impact nuclear construction expenses.

Context:
The UK government is committed to expanding nuclear capacity as part of its net-zero strategy, citing nuclear energy as a stable and low-carbon electricity source. Achieving the 24 GW target by 2050 will require accelerated planning, investment, and overcoming challenges in workforce development and public acceptance






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how much energy is used annually by petrol and diesel cars in the UK

ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
To estimate the annual energy consumption of petrol and diesel cars in the UK, we need to consider the following data:

• Average fuel consumption of vehicles:
  
  
  • Petrol cars typically consume about 6-8 liters per 100 km.
  • Diesel cars are slightly more efficient, consuming about 5-6 liters per 100 km.
• Total vehicle kilometers driven:
  
  
  • According to the Department for Transport (DfT), UK road vehicles travel approximately 500 billion kilometers annually, with a significant proportion attributed to petrol and diesel cars.
• Energy content of fuels:
  
  
  • Petrol contains about 9.7 kWh per liter.
  • Diesel contains about 10.8 kWh per liter.
• Fuel split:
  
  
  • The fleet is divided roughly evenly between petrol and diesel cars, though precise figures depend on the year and trends.

Calculation:
Let's estimate energy consumption step-by-step:

• Assume:
  
  
  • 50% of the kilometers are driven by petrol cars and 50% by diesel cars.
  • Petrol cars average 7 liters per 100 km, and diesel cars average 5.5 liters per 100 km.
• Petrol cars:
  
  
  • 250 billion km÷100×7 liters×9.7 kWh/liter=169.75 TWh250 \, \text{billion km} \div 100 \times 7 \, \text{liters} \times 9.7 \, \text{kWh/liter} = 169.75 \, \text{TWh}250billion km÷100×7liters×9.7kWh/liter=169.75TWh.
• Diesel cars:
  
  
  • 250 billion km÷100×5.5 liters×10.8 kWh/liter=148.5 TWh250 \, \text{billion km} \div 100 \times 5.5 \, \text{liters} \times 10.8 \, \text{kWh/liter} = 148.5 \, \text{TWh}250billion km÷100×5.5liters×10.8kWh/liter=148.5TWh.

Total Energy Consumption:
Adding both figures gives a total of approximately 318 TWh annually for petrol and diesel cars combined.
This is a rough estimate and could vary depending on the actual vehicle mix, fuel efficiencies, and total mileage.

======================================================


how much energy is used annually by household gas boilers in the UK

ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
To estimate the annual energy consumption of household gas boilers in the UK, we need to consider the following:
Key Data Points:

• Number of Households:
  
  
  • The UK has around 28 million households, with approximately 80% (22.4 million) using gas boilers as their primary heating source.
• Average Annual Gas Consumption per Household:
  
  
  • Typical annual gas consumption for heating and hot water in a UK household is about 12,000 kWh (depending on house size, insulation, and weather).
• Total Gas Consumption:
  
  
  • Multiply the number of households with gas boilers by the average consumption.

Calculation:
22.4 million households×12,000 kWh/household=268.8 TWh annually.22.4 \, \text{million households} \times 12,000 \, \text{kWh/household} = 268.8 \, \text{TWh annually}.22.4million households×12,000kWh/household=268.8TWh annually.
Adjustments for Efficiency:

• Modern condensing boilers are about 90% efficient, meaning 10% of energy is lost during operation. The usable energy output is close to this estimate, but the input energy may be slightly higher.

Conclusion:
UK household gas boilers consume approximately 270–300 TWh annually, making them one of the largest energy consumers in the residential sector. This figure underscores the significant energy demand from heating systems compared to vehicles.

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what is the current total energy supplied by the UK national grid

Searched 5 sites

The UK's National Grid currently supplies approximately 31 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity to meet a demand of around 33 GW. This energy is sourced from a mix of fossil fuels (48.2%), renewables (22.2%), and other sources such as nuclear (23.6%). Additional capacity is provided via interconnectors with neighboring countries
National Grid: Live
GOV.UK
.

Annual energy supplied through the grid amounts to over 250 terawatt-hours (TWh), aligning with long-term demand trends and reflecting efforts to integrate more renewable energy sources. Investments in grid modernization aim to support the UK's energy transition

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what would upgrading the national grid to 59GW cost

ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Upgrading the UK National Grid to a capacity of 59 GW would involve substantial investment, as it requires scaling up generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. Based on recent estimates for grid modernization and capacity expansions, we can provide a rough calculation:

Cost Estimate Components

• Generation Capacity Cost:
  
  
  • Costs depend on the energy mix (renewables, nuclear, etc.).
  • Large-scale nuclear costs: ~£5–6 billion per GW
    World Nuclear News
    .
  • Offshore wind: ~£1.5–2 billion per GW (depending on site conditions)
    Imperial College London
    .
  • Solar or other renewable sources: ~£1–1.5 billion per GW
    Imperial College London
    .
• Transmission & Distribution Upgrades:
  
  
  • Recent estimates for grid upgrades to support higher renewable penetration (up to 80 GW by 2050) suggest costs of £50–60 billion over a decade
    National Grid
    New Statesman
    .
  • Scaling this for a 59 GW capacity (75% of the target), grid infrastructure costs could be **£40–45 billion**.
• Additional Factors:
  
  
  • Balancing technologies like batteries and hydrogen could add ~£10–15 billion.
  • Interconnectors and digital grid technologies would increase costs by ~£5 billion.

Estimated Total Cost
For a 59 GW capacity:

• Generation: ~£80–100 billion, depending on the mix of nuclear and renewables.
• Grid upgrades: ~£40–45 billion.
• Balancing and additional technologies: ~£15–20 billion.

Total: Approximately £135–165 billion.

[Diasi]

Which is why it will never happen via increased generation.

[klondike]

Never is long time and fossils fuels will eventually run out. It will have to be done sometime but not in the timescale they are talking about and probably not with wind turbines.